Mykola Buchyn: «We must clearly understand: Ukraine has already won this war!»

Фасад головного корпусу Львівської політехніки

«We must clearly understand: Ukraine has already won this war!» – Mykola Buchyn, a politologist, scientist, professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, the Institute of the Humanities and Social Sciences, Lviv Polytechnic, began our conversation with such life-affirming words.

It is important that we are no longer talking about the fact that we may lose our sovereignty. We have thwarted the aggressor’s plans several times, so there is no chance that Russia will be able to significantly improve its position on the front. This requires significantly more resources, which, obviously, they do not have. And they will not be able to replenish the reserves either, as our soldiers have already destroyed the most capable units. Therefore, I think, if there is a replenishment, it is obsolete equipment and untrained soldiers.

Of course, there will be more attempts to change the situation. We see how fierce are the battles around Izium. If the enemy managed to break through the front here, they would open the way from the north to Donbas and be able to encircle our army or move it. They will not succeed, because they do not have reserves. We are mobilizing, and our fighting spirit is getting higher, international partners are seriously helping to make the Ukrainian army stronger.

What, in your opinion, are the possible options for Ukraine’s victory in this war?

The war continues. The question is what will be the victory and at what price we will win it.

There are several options. Of course, the best is a complete victory when Ukraine liberates all occupied territories, including Donbas and annexed Crimea. This is the most optimistic option. But if the scenario with Donbass is more realistic, the issue of Crimea can be resolved only in combination with the colossal victories at the front and the huge economic problems in Russia. Under other conditions, this is still unattainable.

It is also possible to return to the status we were in before February 24. This is also not the worst option. But there is worse – when everything remains at the current stage. However, the probability of the last stage is almost zero.

What the victory will be depends on who will rebuild Ukraine – at the expense of Ukraine itself, the European community or Russia. Therefore, a complete victory implies that Russia will pay reparations and restore all destruction. Much will also depend on the negotiation process.

Although I do not see the negotiations as an opportunity, but as a threat. Our troops have significant victories at the front, so we would not like the government to at least partially neutralize these successes through negotiations and concessions. I hope that the authorities will keep their promises that there will be no territorial concessions. Such a negotiation process could lead to negative consequences and hit Ukraine hard. This is what Russia is counting on. It is quite real that our enemies will agree to sign only an agreement that will destabilize Ukraine and lead to resistance in society. Therefore, these negotiations are used by hostile diplomats to manipulate and to lull our vigilance.

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